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Tippett and DIPS (August 1, 2003)
Discussion ThreadPosted 7:29 a.m.,
August 2, 2003
(#31) -
Jonathan Davenport
Great stuff. Although he probably didn't intend it that way, Tippett's article exposes McCracken once again as a quick & dirty (albeit creative) researcher who seems more interested in making controversial statements than adding something to the understanding of the game. This behaviour represents the worst in sabermetrics: using incomplete numbers to shock the common sense and discard all observation-based analysis. If a thorough researcher like Tippett had discovered DIPS first, it never would have been such a shock as Voros' version was. (With the 3yr Maddux/Martinez-examples and the "major-league pitchers don't appear to have the ability to prevent hits on balls in play".)
Yeah, yeah, he revised it later, after he was famous. Why is McCracken such a cult hero among statheads?
Remember, this is also the guy who has repeatedly asserted that "clutch hitting does not exist, because we cannot measure it." And he'd probably say that "the Braves have such a good record in one-run games, because they are incredibly lucky."
Look, I'm all for using DIPS and Pythagoras as forecasting tools, but whatever happens on the field, is the truth. If Smoltz closes out a 1-0 game by succesfully inducing a GIDP, that's his ability. If Tino Martinez hits a two-run HR off him, that's HIS ability.